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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
New's Channel 18's cheif meteorologist Mike Prangley's insight to this winter is looking a lot better than previously thought!

I will be sharing with you in its entirety next week for winter weather awareness week. Here are a few tidbits for you:

Last year we had no big snowstorms of 4 inches or greater during the winter.

This year we will have at least 3 big snowstorms in a total opposite weather pattern that has emerged. You will actually get to use your snow shovels and snow blowers.

Last January we had one inch of snow. This January we will be measuring snow in feet!

Temperatures last winter were unusually warm and this winter you can count on some prolonged spells of cold weather.
 

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another update for Northern Indiana, I'll try to post up the winter prediction that news channel 18 is going to release tonight or tomorrow.



This is a sign of what is to come this winter, only we will have colder air to work with which will increase our chances of big snowstorms. Right now I am forecasting a pattern of persistence or continued above normal precipitation to go with below normal temperatures. Tonight at 6 and 11, please join us on Newschannel 18 so I can share my winter outlook for 2006-07. Here is a sneak peak of one of the graphics.

Remember last January most areas had less than 2 inches of snow. This January expect 15" of snow! You will also want to bundle up! Tonight I will tell you how many snowstorms you can expect, month by month!

When I did my research I looked back at similar weather patterns Lafayette has had dating back to the 1920s. What you do is find what we call an analog year which has similar patterns. By learning what happened in the past it can give you clues as to what is on the way in the future.

I studied more than just the El Nino which is one of many factors in the equation. For instance, there is the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, etc. So you see this is very complex and of course this forecast can change with so many factors involved. But I looked at so much data, I hope it cuts down the margin of error. Time will tell. I do have my snow shovel ready! You should too! But be patient if you like snow. Things are looking brighter by Friday.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
yep, 60's until later this week, then cooling with snow in the forcast as of right now. Although they aren't really saying how much if any accumulation we will get this week into the weekend, or how long it will last. Guess were gonna have to wait and see. I've got everything crossed sometimes twice....lol
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
here is what channel 18 is saying:

The strong southern jet stream that has caused our stormy weather will finally relax and the northern jet stream will stay to our north bottling up all the cold air. This is what we call a split flow in the atmosphere. This pattern usually does not bring any big storms and we usually have milder than normal temperatures. This is what we will really start to feel by Thanksgiving week as highs push well into the 50s by Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

If you are looking forward to snowstorms, don't worry. The biggest snowstorms I think will take place in January and February. Last year we actually had our one big snow on December 8th and had no big storms for the entire winter.

This year we should have three times as many snowstorms and during the winter. We can keep track of all the snows together. I am going for 18 total snowfalls this year which is Lafayette's average number of snows. Notice 12 of the 18 snow events will be less than an inch. It is the other six snows we will have to watch closely.

Even though this is coming out to an average year in the quantity column, the quality of snow will be much higher, with a greater chance of bigger snowstorms. Our chilly, stormy fall is no coincidence. In this case, the trend will be our friend, if you like snow. We may see a break in this pattern for the last part of November into December, but things will pick up nicely by January! We will also have to bundle up. Here is a look at both our forecast snowfall and temperatures for this winter.

average temp 29.9'F
05-06 temp 34.4'F
06-07 temp 29.4'F

average snow 22"
05-06 snow 18"
06-07 snow 30"

Channel 22 out of Southbend is calling for 82" of snow, with a current total accumulation of 2"

Hope they are right!
 
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