Snowmobile Fanatics banner
1 - 20 of 39 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
359 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I'm an amateur meteorologist, took some courses in college and know a few people in the field. I have good news for everyone. Beginning later this week for the Upper Midwest and late weekend for the Great Lakes region, our areas will be returning to normal winter weather patterns for a prolonged period. Several factors are contributing to this and I won't go into great detail what they are (if you want to know then pm me) but we will be seeing a return to a normal pattern with colder temps and outbreaks of snow. Thank god, it's looking like we will all get to finally dust off the sleds.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
359 Posts
Discussion Starter · #3 ·
It's hard to predict when those alberta clippers will sweep on down. Just know that what has fallen as rain or mixed precip will fall as snow. I'm not saying it's going to snow, i'm saying the weather is returning to normal January conditions.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
850 Posts
We have two inches of snow on the ground now in southeast michigan.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
359 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 ·
It's going to warm up again before it gets cold so what you have now will be gone
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
78 Posts
The weathermen around here are saying the same thing. I guess this shift is "historic"...not in that we will get record cold or snow but based on the way the weather pattern has been for the last couple of months it is a complete reversal and such a drastic change has never been seen. Catmandu you might be able to expand on this from the weather side (I don't know much about the details) but I'm just glad to hear that there will be a change for the better (even if it turns out to just be a little, it's will be better than what we've had).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
359 Posts
Discussion Starter · #9 ·
OK here comes some science:

There is a major weather phenomenon that occurs that gets less press, but is just as big of a factor in determining the weather patterns for North America and that is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This NAO is a recurring pressure pattern exhibited over the North Atlantic which helps steer the jet stream. When the NAO is in a positive phase, it keeps the Jet stream flowing West to East (zonal). This keeps the cold air locked up in Siberia and prevents it from spilling southward into North America. When the NAO exhibits a neutral or negative phase, the Jet Stream is permitted to plunge southward unlocking the artic air for North America. The NAO has been in a positive phase more or less since around the 16th of November. The NAO was in a negative phase for most of the fall including the beginning of September thru Early November, which led to a cold fall (and a freak October snow-storm for us here in Buffalo). There are signs that the NAO will be reverting from it's current positive phase to a neutral phase in extended 16 day forecasts. This will allow the Jet Stream to work its way south spilling more of the Bitter air into Northern Canada and the modified arctic air into the upper US.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
359 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

I just found this link as well explaining in better detail what I am trying to say. Lots of good stuff on this webpage.

Quoted from the website:
"Unlike recent weather patterns when cold air has been quickly replaced by unseasonable warmth, the upcoming cold shot will remain in place across most of the nation through the latter half of January. Expert Meteorologist Bernie Rayno has additional information on the upcoming cold shot in the video to the right.

According to Chief Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi, the weather from mid-January through mid-February could mimic the winters of 1957-58 and 1965-66. Those winters began with warm conditions before finishing with cold and stormy weather.

Bastardi says in a worst-case scenario, the country will experience a repeat of the winter of 1977-78. After a tepid start, that winter was remarkable for its cold and storms, including three powerful blizzards in the Northeast. "Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock. Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Bastardi believes that if the change in the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the onset of cold weather could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,215 Posts
it already started here for the past two days....it was -28*c here today with the wind chill
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
191 Posts
hope the best for u guys
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,021 Posts
Originally posted by catmandu170
[br].... "Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock. Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

Bastardi believes that if the change in the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the onset of cold weather could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."
YES!!!!!!! May Old Man Winter punch North America like the fist of an angry god!!!!!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,027 Posts
Originally posted by catmandu170
Bastardi believes that if the change in the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the onset of cold weather could result in "one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century."
We don't want it to cold though. Gotta have a little warmth in the air to get that moisture up there. You want heavy snows you need to be about 5-10 degrees below freezing. I will say though, at this point it is nice just to have it feel like winter out there. I went outside my office today at lunch and just stood there to soak in the cold. The people who were walking in with hoods, hats and gloves were sure shooting funny looks to the guy in short sleeves with the goofy smile on his face!!

If you want to go to the ice drags though, bring on the cold. Once the water temp cools back down to normal the lakes will make about 1-2 inches of ice a night if the temps are down in the teens. The colder the better so it gets hard and smooth!!!
 
1 - 20 of 39 Posts
Top